Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the price of bitcoin on 8 August 2023?

Started Jul 18, 2023 10:00AM UTC
Closed Aug 08, 2023 07:01AM UTC

The question will be suspended on 7 August 2023 and the outcome determined using the last price dated 8 August 2023 (PT) as reported by CoinDesk (CoinDesk, set chart to "1M").

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Between $28,500 and $30,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 8 August 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $25,500 1%
Between $25,500 and $27,000, inclusive 1%
More than $27,000 but less than $28,500 10%
Between $28,500 and $30,000, inclusive 80%
More than $30,000 but less than $31,500 6%
Between $31,500 and $33,000, inclusive 1%
More than $33,000 but less than $34,500 1%
Between $34,500 and $36,000, inclusive 0%
More than $36,000 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 71
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 314
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.066
2.
-0.054
3.
-0.054
4.
-0.051
5.
-0.047

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username