How many seats will the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BoerBurgerBeweging in Dutch, or BBB) party win in the 2023 Dutch House of Representatives elections?

Started Jul 14, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 22, 2023 08:01AM UTC

The BBB surprised many with a strong showing in the March 2023 Senate elections and is polling highly with new House of Representatives elections expected in November 2023 following Prime Minister Mark Rutte's resignation in July 2023 (BBC, AP, NPR). Unlike many parliamentary systems, the Dutch have a relatively low minimum threshold for a party to win a seat (Kiesraad.nl [in Dutch]). The next Dutch House of Representatives elections are scheduled for 22 November 2023 (Yahoo).

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The question closed "Fewer than 18" with a closing date of 22 November 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 18 97%
Between 18 and 21 3%
Between 22 and 25 0%
Between 26 and 29 0%
Between 30 and 33 0%
More than 33 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 26
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 178
Average for questions older than 6 months: 578
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.092913
2.
-0.075036
3.
-0.056835
4.
-0.042647
5.
-0.024253

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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