When will Apple announce the public release of a new generative artificial intelligence (AI) system in the US?

Started Jul 28, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
Tags

While Microsoft, Google, and others have released generative AI systems, Apple has yet to join them (CNBC, CNET, US News & World Report). For the purposes of this question, "generative AI" means a deep-learning model that can generate high-quality text, images, and/or other content based on the data on which they were trained (IBM). Examples of generative AI systems that would qualify include ChatGPT, Bard, LLaMa, DALL-E 2, and Claude (Tech Monitor, OpenAI). An announced release of a system created or administered by a partnership with another firm or organization would count. Individually personalized systems or features would not count (e.g., TechCrunch). Providing limited availability for specific individuals (e.g., journalists, academics) or firms (e.g., Apple for AppleCare) alone would not count, and whether use of the AI requires payment is immaterial (Yahoo).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Not before 1 February 2024" with a closing date of 1 February 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 October 2023 0%
Between 1 October 2023 and 30 November 2023 0%
Between 1 December 2023 and 31 January 2024 1%
Not before 1 February 2024 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 68
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 257
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.028034
2.
-0.024304
3.
-0.023602
4.
-0.020407
5.
-0.016177

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username