Will any territory in Crimea that was Russian-controlled before 24 February 2022 cease to be under "Assessed Russian Control" before 15 December 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)?

Started Aug 04, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 15, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Russia seized and annexed Crimea in 2014, but Ukraine may seek to regain the territory as war continues in the country (Newsweek, AP, USA Today). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW, labeled "The Autonomous Republic of Crimea").

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 15 December 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 108
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 320
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.002435
2.
-0.002435
3.
-0.002435
4.
-0.002435
5.
-0.002435

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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