Will the Supreme Court of Israel outright strike down the 2023 amendment to Basic Law: The Judiciary regarding the "reasonableness" standard?

Started Aug 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC

On 24 July 2023, Israel's parliament, the Knesset, passed an amendment to a Basic Law, a quasi-constitutional provision of Israeli law, that would prohibit the Supreme Court (also known as the High Court of Israel when exercising original jurisdiction) from blocking decisions made by the government regarding appointments and administrative matters on the basis of "reasonableness" (CNN, Israel Policy Forum - Judicial Legislation Tracker, American Jewish Committee, Brookings Institution, Knesset - Basic Law: The Judiciary). The hearing on eight challenges to the amendment to the Basic Law is scheduled for 12 September 2023 (Supreme Court of Israel [in Hebrew], ABC News). The question will close upon the handing down of the court's decision on the case or other final action (e.g., dismissal), and a decision on any of the petitions before the court that outright strikes down the amendment would count. If the court does not reach a decision on the challenges to the amendment before 1 December 2023, the suspend date will be extended.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 59%
No 41%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 38
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 177
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.405
2.
-0.385
3.
-0.326
4.
-0.298
5.
-0.264

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username