Started Oct 11, 2016 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC

Before 1 January 2018, will Yemen's Houthi rebels sign a peace agreement that includes provisions about the establishment or recognition of a single, national government?

The war that began in Yemen in 2014 has killed thousands (Al Jazeera, International Crisis Group), and peace talks that began in early 2016 have not yet led to a political settlement (Reuters 10/4/16, Al Jazeera, Reuters 8/29/16). Peace agreements that include provisions creating a new government, establishing a transitional political process to form a new government, or recognizing an existing government would count. This question was updated on 24 October 2016 to clarify that the question is asking about the date of the signing of the agreement, not the establishment or recognition of a single, national government. Recommended Questions Before 2018, which country will be the first to experience two or more anti-government mass protests within one week? When will Syrian government forces retake the city of Aleppo? Will negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement be completed before 1 October 2017?


Yemen's Houthi rebels did not sign a peace agreement. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 272
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 1529
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.005
2.
-0.005
3.
-0.005
4.
-0.005
5.
-0.005

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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