Between the weeks ending 2 September 2023 and 30 March 2024, what will be the highest weekly number of COVID-19 new hospital admissions in the US?

Started Sep 01, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 31, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The question will be suspended on 30 March 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the CDC once data for the week ending 30 March 2024 are first released (CDC). Once data for a specific week have been reported for four weeks, any subsequent revisions to the data would be immaterial for the purposes of resolution (e.g., any revisions to the data for the week ending 22 July 2023 made after the reporting for the week ending 19 August 2023 would be immaterial). If the named source changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions. As of the launch of this question, the CDC reported 6,480 COVID-19 new hospital admissions for the week ending 1 July 2023.

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The question closed "Between 20,000 and 40,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 31 March 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 20,000 1%
Between 20,000 and 40,000, inclusive 97%
More than 40,000 but fewer than 60,000 2%
Between 60,000 and 80,000, inclusive 1%
More than 80,000 but fewer than 100,000 0%
Between 100,000 and 120,000, inclusive 0%
More than 120,000 but fewer than 140,000 0%
140,000 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 50
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 287
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.03909
2.
-0.037643
3.
-0.036707
4.
-0.02495
5.
-0.023142

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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