Which 2024 Republican presidential candidate will win the most pledged delegates for the Republican National Convention?

Started Sep 11, 2023 09:00AM UTC
Closed Mar 13, 2024 02:00AM UTC

Pledged (aka bound) delegates are bound to vote for the candidate selected per the primary or caucus results in their respective jurisdictions in at least the first round at the Republican National Convention (Ballotpedia - Republican Delegate Rules 2024). As of the launch of this question, the first contest in the Republican primary season for the 2024 presidential election is the Iowa caucuses scheduled for 15 January 2024, with the last four primaries scheduled for 4 June 2023 (270 to Win). Any litigation concerning a candidate's eligibility to be president is immaterial.

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The question closed "Donald Trump" with a closing date of 12 March 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Ron DeSantis 0%
Nikki Haley 6%
Mike Pence 0%
Vivek Ramaswamy 0%
Donald Trump 93%
Someone else 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 412
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 1273
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.082875
2.
-0.082821
3.
-0.082749
4.
-0.082604
5.
-0.082604

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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