Started Oct 18, 2016 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 01, 2017 06:59AM UTC

When will a lethal confrontation involving the national military forces of North Korea and either South Korea or the United States result in a fatality for either side?

North Korea frequently threatens to attack South Korea and the US (CNN, Reuters) and South Korea has responded with counter-threats and conventional preparations (The Telegraph, American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research). The two Koreas have been involved in scores of confrontational incidents, some of them lethal (The Guardian, Congressional Research Service).

Recommended Questions
Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China's and another country's national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?
When will North Korea next conduct a nuclear test?



There was no lethal confrontation involving the national military forces of North Korea and either South Korea or the United States resulting in a fatality. This question closed as "Not before 1 October 2017," with an end date of 1 October 2017.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.


Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 January 2017 0%
Between 1 January 2017 and 31 March 2017, inclusive 0%
Between 1 April 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive 0%
Between 1 July 2017 and 30 September 2017, inclusive 0%
Not before 1 October 2017 100%

No. of
Forecasters

402

Forecast
Count

1716


Most Accurate

Accuracy Score

1.
-0.004
2.
-0.004
3.
-0.004
4.
-0.004
5.
-0.004