Started Oct 18, 2016 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Oct 01, 2017 06:59AM UTC

When will a lethal confrontation involving the national military forces of North Korea and either South Korea or the United States result in a fatality for either side?

North Korea frequently threatens to attack South Korea and the US (CNN, Reuters) and South Korea has responded with counter-threats and conventional preparations (The Telegraph, American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research). The two Koreas have been involved in scores of confrontational incidents, some of them lethal (The Guardian, Congressional Research Service).

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Name Probability
Before 1 January 2017 0%
Between 1 January 2017 and 31 March 2017, inclusive 0%
Between 1 April 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive 0%
Between 1 July 2017 and 30 September 2017, inclusive 3%
Not before 1 October 2017 97%

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