Will the city council building in Melitopol, Ukraine, be under Ukrainian control on 1 April 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

Started Oct 06, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

While the Ukrainian counteroffensive that began in the summer of 2023 has produced limited territorial gains, Melitopol is still seen as a target (US News & World Report, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Euronews). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2024 and the outcome determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW). The address is Mykhaila Hrushevskoho St, 5, Melitopol' (Mykhaila Hrushevskoho St, 5, Melitopol', Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine, 72300), to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the address. Whether the building is damaged or destroyed would be immaterial.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 April 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3%
No 97%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 95
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 353
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.004
2.
-0.004
4.
-0.004
5.
-0.004

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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