What percentage of the vote will the Democratic candidate win in the 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election?

Started Oct 11, 2023 09:00AM UTC
Closed Nov 07, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Incumbent Democratic Governor Andy Beshear is running for reelection in a state that went for Donald Trump in 2020 (US News & World Report, Ballotpedia).

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The question closed "More than 50.0% but less than 53.0%" with a closing date of 7 November 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
50.0% or less and will not win the election 28%
50.0% or less but will win the election 35%
More than 50.0% but less than 53.0% 32%
53.0% or more 5%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 104
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 182
Number of Forecasts 274
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 470
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.544
2.
-0.492
4.
-0.394
5.
-0.393

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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