Will an attack on a US diplomatic facility outside of the US result in either a fatality or the capture of one or more US personnel at the facility before 20 April 2024?

Started Oct 20, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 20, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Protests, some violent, have broken out at US diplomatic facilities since an explosion at a hospital in the Gaza Strip that Hamas claims was perpetrated by Israel, a claim Israel denies (PBS, Hurriyet Daily News, US Department of State). For the purposes of this question, "US personnel" include diplomatic staff, Marine Security Guards, and other US government personnel. A fatality must be among US personnel to count.

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NOTE 23 October 2023: For the purposes of this question, "US diplomatic facility" means the "premises of the mission" as governed by the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations (e.g., embassies) or the "consular premises" as governed by the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations (e.g., consular offices) (UN - Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, UN - Vienna Convention on Consular Relations). An attack must occur at a diplomatic facility to count, but the fatality need not necessarily occur at that same facility.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 20 April 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 6%
No 94%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 116
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 533
Average for questions older than 6 months: 584
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.030987
2.
-0.030951
4.
-0.029238
5.
-0.027733

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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