Will an attack on a US diplomatic facility outside of the US result in either a fatality or the capture of one or more US personnel at the facility before 20 April 2024?
Closed Apr 20, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Protests, some violent, have broken out at US diplomatic facilities since an explosion at a hospital in the Gaza Strip that Hamas claims was perpetrated by Israel, a claim Israel denies (PBS, Hurriyet Daily News, US Department of State). For the purposes of this question, "US personnel" include diplomatic staff, Marine Security Guards, and other US government personnel. A fatality must be among US personnel to count.
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NOTE 23 October 2023: For the purposes of this question, "US diplomatic facility" means the "premises of the mission" as governed by the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations (e.g., embassies) or the "consular premises" as governed by the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations (e.g., consular offices) (UN - Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, UN - Vienna Convention on Consular Relations). An attack must occur at a diplomatic facility to count, but the fatality need not necessarily occur at that same facility.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 20 April 2024.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 6% | |
No | 94% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 116 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
Number of Forecasts | 533 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 584 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |