Which candidate will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election?

Started Oct 25, 2023 09:00AM UTC
Closed Nov 19, 2023 08:01AM UTC

A presidential runoff election between the Peronist Sergio Massa and libertarian Javier Milei is set for 19 November 2023 (AP, BBC). Under Argentine law, a candidate for President or Vice-president can be replaced in certain circumstances, including the death of the candidate. In that event, a forecast for a candidate who ceases to be a candidate would be considered a forecast for the replacement candidate chosen by Argentine law (Argentina.gob.ar, see Article 61).

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The question closed "Javier Milei" with a closing date of 19 November 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Sergio Massa 43%
Javier Milei 57%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 139
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 353
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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