Which candidate will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election?

Started Oct 25, 2023 09:00AM UTC
Closed Nov 19, 2023 08:01AM UTC

A presidential runoff election between the Peronist Sergio Massa and libertarian Javier Milei is set for 19 November 2023 (AP, BBC). Under Argentine law, a candidate for President or Vice-president can be replaced in certain circumstances, including the death of the candidate. In that event, a forecast for a candidate who ceases to be a candidate would be considered a forecast for the replacement candidate chosen by Argentine law (Argentina.gob.ar, see Article 61).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Javier Milei" with a closing date of 19 November 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Sergio Massa 43%
Javier Milei 57%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 139
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 353
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.765236
2.
-0.630776
3.
-0.528104
5.
-0.513328

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username