Will the State of California again permit Cruise LLC to operate autonomous vehicles without backup/safety drivers on public roads before 30 March 2024?

Started Oct 27, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 30, 2024 07:01AM UTC
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On 24 October 2024, the California Department of Motor Vehicles announced that it "notified Cruise that the department is suspending Cruise’s autonomous vehicle deployment and driverless testing permits, effective immediately. The DMV has provided Cruise with the steps needed to apply to reinstate its suspended permits, which the DMV will not approve until the company has fulfilled the requirements to the department’s satisfaction. This decision does not impact the company’s permit for testing with a safety driver" (California DMV, US News & World Report). Permitting a successor-in-interest of Cruise LLC would count, and the number of permitted vehicles is immaterial. The question will close as of the date new permits take effect.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 30 March 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 46
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 144
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.022
2.
-0.022
3.
-0.022
4.
-0.016
5.
-0.016

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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