When will the city block including Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City be under the control of the Israeli forces?

Started Oct 31, 2023 08:30PM UTC
Closed Nov 16, 2023 08:00PM UTC

Israeli forces are building in the north of the Gaza Strip as of late October 2023 (MSN, US News & World Report). Israel asserts that Hamas is using the Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City as a command center (US News & World Report, CNN). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of "Israel's Operation in Gaza" and open source reporting (ISW). The location of the city block including Al-Shifa hospital may be pulled up using the following coordinates: (31°31′27″N 34°26′39″E), to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the coordinates in the parentheses. Per Google Maps, the block is bound by the following roads: Abu Baker Al-Razi, Ibn Sina, Shifa-Ezz Eldine Al-Qassam, and Ahmed Abd Al-Azez (Google Maps). Whether the structures on the block are damaged or destroyed is immaterial. ISW designating the block with "Reported Israeli Clearing Operations" alone would not count without corroboration as to control of the location. If ISW changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.

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The question closed "Between 14 November 2023 and 30 November 2023" with a closing date of 16 November 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 14 November 2023 1%
Between 14 November 2023 and 30 November 2023 86%
Between 1 December 2023 and 20 December 2023 7%
Between 21 December 2023 and 12 January 2024 3%
Between 13 January 2024 and 8 February 2024 2%
Not before 9 February 2024 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 49
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 182
Number of Forecasts 178
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 470
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.142
2.
-0.13
3.
-0.127
5.
-0.12

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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