Started Nov 01, 2016 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC

When will China next deploy a deep sea oil rig in another country's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) without that country's permission?

In May 2014, China sparked a diplomatic crisis with Vietnam when it deployed its HYSY 981 deep sea oil rig in Vietnam's exclusive economic zone (Reuters, Center for Strategic and International Studies), and China has moved the rig into disputed waters on multiple occasions since then (Associated Press, Reuters). The HYSY 981 is China's only deep sea oil rig, but other models are in development and may become operational next year (YIBADA). The location of HYSY 981 (MMSI number 413464330) can be found here and this marine traffic site can be used to track other vessels as well. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.


China did not deploy a deep sea oil rig in another country's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) without that country's permission. This question closed as "Not before 1 January 2018" with an end date of 1 January 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 January 2017 0%
Between 1 January and 30 June 2017, inclusive 0%
Between 1 July and 31 December 2017, inclusive 0%
Not before 1 January 2018 100%

No. of
Forecasters

265

Forecast
Count

1038

Crowd Brier Score

0.0545


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.087
2.
-0.087
3.
-0.087
4.
-0.087
5.
-0.087

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