Will Bernardo Arévalo be inaugurated as President of Guatemala before 16 January 2024?

Started Nov 10, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 15, 2024 06:30AM UTC

Bernardo Arévalo won the August 2023 Guatemalan presidential election and is due to be inaugurated on 14 January 2024, but he is facing various obstacles from state institutions (CNN, Axios, El País, France 24, US Mission to Org. of American States).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 14 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 89%
No 11%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 31
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 104
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.042637
2.
-0.041908
4.
-0.041406
5.
-0.038825

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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