Will Bernardo Arévalo be inaugurated as President of Guatemala before 16 January 2024?
Started
Nov 10, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 15, 2024 06:30AM UTC
Closed Jan 15, 2024 06:30AM UTC
Challenges
Bernardo Arévalo won the August 2023 Guatemalan presidential election and is due to be inaugurated on 14 January 2024, but he is facing various obstacles from state institutions (CNN, Axios, El País, France 24, US Mission to Org. of American States).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 14 January 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 89% | |
| No | 11% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 31 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 104 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 584 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
