The Economist asks:

How many National Assembly seats will the African National Congress (ANC) win in the 2024 South African general election?

Started Nov 13, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Closed May 29, 2024 07:01AM UTC

All 400 seats in the South Africa National Assembly will be up for a vote in the next general election, which has had an ANC majority since the first post-apartheid election of 1994 (Economist, Voice of America Africa, South African Parliament - National Assembly, Britannica - ANC, Africa News). The general election is expected in or around May 2024, and the close date for this question will be changed once the official election date is set.

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The question closed "Fewer than 176" with a closing date of 29 May 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 176 27%
Between 176 and 200 44%
Between 201 and 225 14%
Between 226 and 250 11%
More than 250 4%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 218
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 670
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.541636
2.
-0.485637
4.
-0.458633
5.
-0.416268

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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