The Economist asks:
How many National Assembly seats will the African National Congress (ANC) win in the 2024 South African general election?
Closed May 29, 2024 07:01AM UTC
All 400 seats in the South Africa National Assembly will be up for a vote in the next general election, which has had an ANC majority since the first post-apartheid election of 1994 (Economist, Voice of America Africa, South African Parliament - National Assembly, Britannica - ANC, Africa News). The general election is expected in or around May 2024, and the close date for this question will be changed once the official election date is set.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Fewer than 176" with a closing date of 29 May 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 176 | 27% | |
| Between 176 and 200 | 44% | |
| Between 201 and 225 | 14% | |
| Between 226 and 250 | 11% | |
| More than 250 | 4% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 218 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 178 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 670 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 521 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
