The Economist asks:
How many National Assembly seats will the African National Congress (ANC) win in the 2024 South African general election?
Closed May 29, 2024 07:01AM UTC
All 400 seats in the South Africa National Assembly will be up for a vote in the next general election, which has had an ANC majority since the first post-apartheid election of 1994 (Economist, Voice of America Africa, South African Parliament - National Assembly, Britannica - ANC, Africa News). The general election is expected in or around May 2024, and the close date for this question will be changed once the official election date is set.
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The question closed "Fewer than 176" with a closing date of 29 May 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 176 | 27% | |
| Between 176 and 200 | 44% | |
| Between 201 and 225 | 14% | |
| Between 226 and 250 | 11% | |
| More than 250 | 4% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 218 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 200 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 670 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 571 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
