The Economist asks:

What percentage of the vote will the MORENA party candidate win in the next Mexican general election?

Started Nov 13, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 02, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The next Mexican general election is scheduled for 2 June 2024, which includes a presidential election (Economist, AP, Mexico National Electoral Institute). In the event of the renaming of MORENA or its fragmentation into two or more parties, further instructions will be provided.

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NOTE 5 December 2023: The question is only concerned with the presidential election.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
50.0% or less and will not win the election 13.59% -0.05% -1.41% -3.88%
50.0% or less but will win the election 32.14% +0.80% +1.14% +0.38%
More than 50.0% but less than 55.0% 34.54% -0.32% -0.46% +3.36%
55.0% or more 19.72% -0.44% +0.72% +0.13%

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