The Economist asks:
What percentage of the vote will the MORENA party candidate win in the next Mexican general election?
Started
Nov 13, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 02, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Closing Jun 02, 2024 07:01AM UTC
The next Mexican general election is scheduled for 2 June 2024, which includes a presidential election (Economist, AP, Mexico National Electoral Institute). In the event of the renaming of MORENA or its fragmentation into two or more parties, further instructions will be provided.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
NOTE 5 December 2023: The question is only concerned with the presidential election.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.0% or less and will not win the election | 7.49% | -0.07% | -0.14% | -3.46% |
| 50.0% or less but will win the election | 17.30% | -0.16% | -0.48% | -8.65% |
| More than 50.0% but less than 55.0% | 38.71% | -0.18% | -0.63% | +1.34% |
| 55.0% or more | 36.50% | +0.41% | +1.26% | +10.77% |