The Economist asks:

What percentage of the vote will the MORENA party candidate win in the next Mexican general election?

Started Nov 13, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 02, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The next Mexican general election is scheduled for 2 June 2024, which includes a presidential election (Economist, AP, Mexico National Electoral Institute). In the event of the renaming of MORENA or its fragmentation into two or more parties, further instructions will be provided.

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NOTE 5 December 2023: The question is only concerned with the presidential election.


The question closed "55.0% or more" with a closing date of 2 June 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
50.0% or less and will not win the election 5%
50.0% or less but will win the election 15%
More than 50.0% but less than 55.0% 47%
55.0% or more 33%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 216
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 620
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.135101
2.
-1.089598
3.
-0.932729
4.
-0.875793
5.
-0.830037

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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