The Economist asks:

How many seats in the Lok Sabha will the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) win in the next Indian general election?

Started Nov 14, 2023 03:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 19, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The next general election for the Lok Sabha, the lower house of India's bicameral parliament, is scheduled for phases in the spring of 2024 (Economist, US News & World Report). Incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its NDA electoral alliance hoping to extend their majority for another term, though it faces challenges ahead (AP, Times of India). The suspend date will be changed to the day before polls are scheduled to close in the first phase of voting once officially set, expected between April and May 2024 (e.g., 2019 Al Jazeera). In the event of a split within the NDA, the electoral alliance including the BJP will be considered the successor to the NDA.

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The question closed "Between 272 and 298" with a closing date of 1 June 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
271 or fewer 3%
Between 272 and 298 10%
Between 299 and 325 22%
Between 326 and 352 27%
353 or more 38%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 239
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 579
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.379763
2.
-0.345768
4.
-0.318644
5.
-0.31055

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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