The Quad countries are the US, India, Japan, and Australia (Council on Foreign Relations). Tensions continue in the South China Sea and elsewhere, with increasing fears of some form of military confrontation (Voice of America, GIS). For the purposes of this question, drones may be considered part of "forces" if so claimed by the accused. Accusations of "warning shots" being fired would count (e.g., guns or missiles). An accusation of a vessel or aircraft deliberately ramming another would count, but accidental collisions would not. Cyberattacks and the use of directed-energy weapons (e.g., microwaves, sonic weapons) would not count, and an accusation of the mere use of blunt instruments as weapons, such as clubs and fists, in hand-to-hand fighting would not count. An accusation by one Quad country against another Quad country would not count, and both the accused use and the accusation must occur during the question's open period to count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.