The Economist asks:

Will a Quad country or the People's Republic of China publicly accuse the other of using a weapon against its national military, militia, and/or law enforcement forces before 1 October 2024?

Started Nov 17, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The Quad countries are the US, India, Japan, and Australia (Council on Foreign Relations). Tensions continue in the South China Sea and elsewhere, with increasing fears of some form of military confrontation (Voice of America, GIS). For the purposes of this question, drones may be considered part of "forces" if so claimed by the accused. Accusations of "warning shots" being fired would count (e.g., guns or missiles). An accusation of a vessel or aircraft deliberately ramming another would count, but accidental collisions would not. Cyberattacks and the use of directed-energy weapons (e.g., microwaves, sonic weapons) would not count, and an accusation of the mere use of blunt instruments as weapons, such as clubs and fists, in hand-to-hand fighting would not count. An accusation by one Quad country against another Quad country would not count, and both the accused use and the accusation must occur during the question's open period to count.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 18.09% 0% -0.14% -0.35%
No 81.91% 0% +0.14% +0.35%

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