The Economist asks:

How many seats will the European People's Party Group (EPP) win in the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections?

Started Nov 17, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 06, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The EPP is currently the largest political group (i.e., party) in the EP (Politico, Politico - Poll of Polls). In the event of the renaming of a political group or its fragmentation into two or more parties, further instructions will be provided. The question will be suspended on 5 June 2024, with the elections scheduled for 6-9 June 2024 (Economist, European Parliament - Elections). In the event of a tie, the political group with more total votes in the elections will be considered to have won more seats. The outcome will be determined on the day of the first meeting of the Tenth European Parliament.

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The question closed "Between 175 and 189" with a closing date of 9 June 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 145 2%
Between 145 and 159 9%
Between 160 and 174 36%
Between 175 and 189 44%
Between 190 and 204 7%
More than 204 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 220
Average for questions older than 6 months: 200
Number of Forecasts 562
Average for questions older than 6 months: 571
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.169534
2.
-0.132873
3.
-0.132789
4.
-0.131122
5.
-0.123588

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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