Will the "natural growth rate" of the population of China in 2023 be negative?

Started Nov 17, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Deaths outnumbered births in China for the first time on record in 2022, the consequence of a long-expected demographic shift in the country that the government is working to address (BBC, CNBC, National Statistics Bureau of China). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using natural growth rate (i.e., the birth rate minus the death rate over a given period) data as published by the Chinese government for 2023, expected in early 2024. Because your browser may not recognize the security certificate used by China's National Bureau of Statistics website, we have included the birth rate, death rate, and natural growth rate for the past ten years:

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 81%
No 19%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 129
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 184
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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