Will the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) authorize SpaceX to launch a third flight of Starship Super Heavy before 1 January 2024?

Started Nov 24, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
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After a more successful, though not completely successful, second test of SpaceX's Starship on 18 November 2023, Elon Musk has said that they could be ready for a third test within three to four weeks (Space.com, Isp.page, Payload, Space.com). License authorization for the second flight was given on 15 November 2023 (X [fka Twitter], US News & World Report).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 14%
No 86%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 40
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 99
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.033616
3.
-0.024942
4.
-0.024942
5.
-0.01365

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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