What will be the gigawatts (GW) of photovoltaic (PV) electrical capacity installed in the world in 2023, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)?

Started Nov 24, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Solar energy generation is seen as key for the general move away from fossil fuels (Nature, CNET). The question will be suspended on 29 February 2024 and the outcome determined using installed capacity data (for the year, not cumulative) as reported by the IEA in its 2024 Snapshot of Global PV Markets, expected in early spring of 2024 (IEA PV Power Systems Programme - Snapshot Reports). In 2022, 240 GW of PV electrical capacity was installed around the world (IEA - Snapshot of Global PV Markets 2023, see Figure 1, ShopSolar - Gigawatt definition).

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The question closed "Between 360 GW and 420 GW, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 March 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 240 GW 0%
Between 240 GW and 300 GW, inclusive 2%
More than 300 GW but less than 360 GW 20%
Between 360 GW and 420 GW, inclusive 70%
More than 420 GW 8%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 53
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 180
Number of Forecasts 197
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 464
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.217
2.
-0.187
3.
-0.183
4.
-0.181
5.
-0.18

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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