Will the Japanese House of Representatives be dissolved before 5 June 2024?

Started Dec 04, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 05, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Prime Minister Kishida was reportedly considering seeking the dissolution of the House of Representatives to call early elections, but he has thus far declined to do so (Japan Times, Yahoo, APJapan PM Office - Japan Constitution).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 5 June 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 55
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 188
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.062447
3.
-0.047125
4.
-0.046643

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username