Will any territory in Crimea that was Russian-controlled before 24 February 2022 cease to be under "Assessed Russian Control" before 15 August 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)?

Started Dec 15, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 15, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Russia seized and annexed Crimea in 2014, but Ukraine still seeks to regain the territory as war continues in the country (Guardian, NBC News, Hudson Institute). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW, labeled "The Autonomous Republic of Crimea").

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 1.00% 0% 0% -1.00%
No 99.00% 0% 0% +1.00%

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