When will Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) announce that its ships will again transit the Suez Canal?

Started Dec 22, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 29, 2024 07:01AM UTC

MSC, the world's largest shipping company, announced on 16 December 2023 that its ships "will not transit the Suez Canal Eastbound and Westbound" until "the Red Sea passage is safe" after one of its ships was attacked by Iranian-backed Houthi forces in Yemen (MSC, BBC, CNBC). The date an MSC ship actually transits the Suez Canal is immaterial, and any local traffic including the Red Sea coasts of Egypt, Israel, and Sudan and/or the west coast of Saudi Arabia would not count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 26 December 2023: An announcement that MSC is merely preparing to resume transits through the Suez Canal would not count.

NOTE 16 January 2024: Announcements for the MSC cruise line subsidiary MSC Cruises or other non-cargo subsidiaries would not count.


The question closed "Not before 29 March 2024" with a closing date of 29 March 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 5 January 2024 0%
Between 5 January 2024 and 25 January 2024 0%
Between 26 January 2024 and 22 February 2024 0%
Between 23 February 2024 and 28 March 2024 1%
Not before 29 March 2024 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 74
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 180
Number of Forecasts 329
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 464
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.28849
3.
-0.267242
4.
-0.264477
5.
-0.255913

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username