In NY Times v. Microsoft/OpenAI, will a federal court issue any injunctive relief for the NY Times against any named defendant related to the use of its copyrighted materials to train large language models (LLMs) before 29 June 2024?

Started Dec 29, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 29, 2024 07:01AM UTC
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On 27 December 2023, the New York Times Company (NY Times) filed a civil complaint in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York seeking, among other things, action by the court to prevent Microsoft and OpenAI from using its intellectual property to train LLMs like ChatGPT without compensation (AP, CNBC, NY Times v. Microsoft, et al.). Whether the relief takes the form of an injunction or restraining order is immaterial (Cornell - Injunctive Relief, Cornell - FRCP Rule 65). Injunctive relief as to the use of an LLM trained with NY Times' copyrighted material would count. Whether injunctive relief is stayed pending appeal is immaterial.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 29 June 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2%
No 98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 55
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 213
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.166826
2.
-0.164469
3.
-0.161176
4.
-0.156905
5.
-0.15191

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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