While Donald Trump was facing various federal criminal charges as of December 2023, he had not been charged under 18 U.S.C. §2383, which provides criminal consequences for involvement in "rebellion or insurrection against the authority of the United States or the laws thereof" (Cornell - 18 U.S.C. §2383, Lawfare, Politico). The Colorado Supreme Court ruled that Trump was disqualified from being president under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment due to him having "engaged in insurrection or rebellion," a decision expected to be reviewed by the US Supreme Court (Congress.gov - 14th Amendment, CBS News, Axios).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 13 July 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.