Will Donald Trump be criminally charged under 18 U.S.C. §2383 (Rebellion or insurrection) before 13 July 2024?

Started Dec 29, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 13, 2024 07:01AM UTC

While Donald Trump was facing various federal criminal charges as of December 2023, he had not been charged under 18 U.S.C. §2383, which provides criminal consequences for involvement in "rebellion or insurrection against the authority of the United States or the laws thereof" (Cornell - 18 U.S.C. §2383, Lawfare, Politico). The Colorado Supreme Court ruled that Trump was disqualified from being president under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment due to him having "engaged in insurrection or rebellion," a decision expected to be reviewed by the US Supreme Court (Congress.gov - 14th Amendment, CBS News, Axios).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 13 July 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2%
No 98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 99
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188
Number of Forecasts 274
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.016317
2.
-0.016265
3.
-0.015822
4.
-0.015822
5.
-0.015822

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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