Krysten Sinema, who was first elected to the US Senate in 2018 as a Democrat and subsequently became an independent, has not announced whether she will run for reelection (Axios, NBC News). Whether she announces that she will seek a particular party's nomination is immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Yes, and she will announce that she is not running" with a closing date of 5 March 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.