In what place will Rep. Lauren Boebert come in the 2024 Republican primary for Colorado's 4th Congressional District?

Started Jan 05, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 25, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Facing stiff challenges in the congressional district she currently represents, Rep. Lauren Boebert announced for the 2024 US elections that she would run in Colorado's 4th Congressional District, where incumbent Rep. Ken Buck has decided not to seek reelection (CBS News, Post Independent, The Hill). The Republican primary is scheduled for 25 June 2024 (Ballotpedia). If Boebert does not appear on the ballot for whatever reason, the question will close "Fourth or lower." In the event of a tie for first place, the outcome will be determined based on the tie-breaking procedures used under Colorado state law (eBenchBook - CRS 1-11-101, see (3)).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "First" with a closing date of 26 June 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
First 75%
Second 19%
Third 5%
Fourth or lower 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 84
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 269
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.454071
2.
-0.449816
3.
-0.446721
4.
-0.330851
5.
-0.314885

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username