Will a Republican place in the top two in the primary for the special US Senate election for California in 2024?

Started Jan 05, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Polls indicate that Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff is leading the race for California's nonpartisan primary to fill the Senate seat vacated due to the death of Dianne Feinstein, but Republican Steve Garvey has been consistently polling well (KTLA, Politico). The nonpartisan primary is scheduled for 5 March 2024 (Ballotpedia).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 5 March 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 65%
No 35%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 73
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 149
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.546487
2.
-0.491688
3.
-0.479363
4.
-0.473943
5.
-0.426817

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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