Will a Republican place in the top two in the primary for the special US Senate election for California in 2024?
Started
Jan 05, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Closed Mar 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
Polls indicate that Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff is leading the race for California's nonpartisan primary to fill the Senate seat vacated due to the death of Dianne Feinstein, but Republican Steve Garvey has been consistently polling well (KTLA, Politico). The nonpartisan primary is scheduled for 5 March 2024 (Ballotpedia).
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 5 March 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 65% | |
| No | 35% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 73 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 149 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 474 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |