Will the No Labels organization select a 2024 US presidential candidate before 15 June 2024?

Started Feb 02, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 04, 2024 08:15PM UTC

No Labels, an organization created to offer alternatives to the major party candidates, has stated that it will put forward a candidate for president this year (Axios, CNN, The Hill, Yahoo, No Labels). The question will close early if the No Labels organization publicly announces that it will not select a 2024 US presidential candidate.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 4 April 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and Joe Manchin will be selected 3%
Yes, and Larry Hogan will be selected 3%
Yes, and someone else will be selected 24%
No 70%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 53
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 179
Number of Forecasts 179
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 463
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.138355
2.
-0.131177
3.
-0.125229
4.
-0.114845
5.
-0.108958

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username