Will the No Labels organization select a 2024 US presidential candidate before 15 June 2024?

Started Feb 02, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 04, 2024 08:15PM UTC

No Labels, an organization created to offer alternatives to the major party candidates, has stated that it will put forward a candidate for president this year (Axios, CNN, The Hill, Yahoo, No Labels). The question will close early if the No Labels organization publicly announces that it will not select a 2024 US presidential candidate.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 4 April 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and Joe Manchin will be selected 3%
Yes, and Larry Hogan will be selected 3%
Yes, and someone else will be selected 24%
No 70%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 53
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 146
Number of Forecasts 179
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 330
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.138355
2.
-0.131177
3.
-0.125229
4.
-0.114845
5.
-0.108958

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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