What percentage of the vote will Joe Biden receive in the 2024 Michigan Democratic presidential primary?

Started Feb 02, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 27, 2024 08:01AM UTC

There are three candidates on the Michigan Democratic primary ballot: President Joe Biden, Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips, and Marianne Williamson (Michigan Secretary of State). The Michigan Democratic primary is scheduled for 27 February 2024 (270 to Win).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "At least 75.0%, but less than 85.0%" with a closing date of 27 February 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 65.0% 1%
At least 65.0%, but less than 75.0% 13%
At least 75.0%, but less than 85.0% 47%
At least 85.0%, but less than 95.0% 33%
95.0% or more 6%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 47
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 147
Number of Forecasts 149
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 331
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.257
2.
-0.216
3.
-0.199
4.
-0.197
5.
-0.19

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username