Who will win the special election for California's 20th Congressional District in 2024?

Started Feb 09, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed May 21, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Representative Kevin McCarthy resigned from the House a few months after being ousted as Speaker, creating a vacancy to be filled by a special election scheduled for 21 May 2024 (AP, Bakersfield Californian, Ballotpedia). The nonpartisan primary is scheduled for 19 March 2024 (KGET).

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The question closed "Vince Fong" with a closing date of 21 May 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Mike Boudreaux 3%
Vince Fong 97%
Marisa Wood 0%
Someone else 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 35
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 174
Number of Forecasts 86
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 451
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.086636
2.
-0.083016
3.
-0.082074
4.
-0.080597
5.
-0.080297

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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