Who will win the special election for California's 20th Congressional District in 2024?

Started Feb 09, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closing May 21, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Representative Kevin McCarthy resigned from the House a few months after being ousted as Speaker, creating a vacancy to be filled by a special election scheduled for 21 May 2024 (AP, Bakersfield Californian, Ballotpedia). The nonpartisan primary is scheduled for 19 March 2024 (KGET).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Mike Boudreaux 19.40% -11.10% -15.60%
Vince Fong 66.30% +11.10% +7.30%
Marisa Wood 2.20% +0.00% -1.80%
Someone else 12.10% +0.00% +10.10%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username