The Economist asks:

What will be the value of the FAO Food Price Index for September 2024?

Started Feb 23, 2024 03:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Global food prices fell overall in 2023, with the exceptions of sugar (highest since 2011) and rice (up 21% last year) (Economist, AP). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2024 and the outcome determined using nominal data reported by the FAO for September 2024, expected in early October 2024 (FAO, see table near bottom of page). As of launch, the value for the Food Price Index for September 2023 was 121.9. To download historical nominal data, click "Excel: Nominal and real indices from 1990 onwards (monthly and annual)" under "Download datasets."

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The question closed "At least 124.0, but less than 134.0" with a closing date of 1 October 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 94.0 0%
At least 94.0, but less than 104.0 0%
At least 104.0, but less than 114.0 5%
At least 114.0, but less than 124.0 86%
At least 124.0, but less than 134.0 8%
At least 134.0, but less than 144.0 1%
144.0 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 129
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188
Number of Forecasts 498
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.226279
2.
-0.209418
4.
-0.172239
5.
-0.150081

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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