johnnycaffeine asks:
How many measles cases will be reported in the US in 2024?
Started
Feb 23, 2024 03:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
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Cases of measles have risen globally amid widespread vaccine skepticism, and there are concerns over potential outbreaks in the US (ABC News, NPR). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 if still open and the outcome determined using data as first reported on the CDC's "Measles Cases and Outbreaks" page (CDC).
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The question closed "At least 200, but fewer than 400" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 200 | 0% | |
| At least 200, but fewer than 400 | 94% | |
| At least 400, but fewer than 800 | 5% | |
| At least 800, but fewer than 1,200 | 1% | |
| At least 1,200, but fewer than 1,600 | 0% | |
| At least 1,600, but fewer than 2,000 | 0% | |
| 2,000 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 45 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 181 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 375 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 528 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
