Before 5 November 2024, will a United States Supreme Court seat be vacated?

Started Feb 28, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Political concerns about the makeup of the Supreme Court continue to lead to speculation that a left-wing Justice may consider retirement while the Democratic Party controls the White House and the Senate (The Hill, Daily Mail). For the purposes of this question, an announced retirement effective upon the confirmation of a successor would count as a seat being vacated, though an announced retirement effective as of a date after 5 November 2024 would not count (e.g., Supreme Court - O'Connor Letter, Supreme Court - Breyer Letter).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 5 November 2024 6.00% +0.37% +0.04% -1.79%
Yes, but no replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 5 November 2024 6.00% +0.08% -1.13% -2.08%
No 88.00% -0.46% +1.08% +3.87%

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