When will Marianne Williamson cease to be a candidate for the 2024 Democratic nomination for US president?

Started Mar 06, 2024 09:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 11, 2024 10:28PM UTC

After dropping out of the presidential race on 7 February 2024 and re-entering on 28 February 2024, Marianne Williamson is perhaps the biggest name challenging President Biden for the Democratic nomination since Dean Phillips dropped out on 6 March 2024 (Ballotpedia, Fox News, Axios). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that Williamson no longer seeks the Democratic Party nomination for president or that she is fully suspending her campaign.

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The question closed "Between 28 May 2024 and 8 July 2024" with a closing date of 11 June 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 16 April 2024 0%
Between 16 April 2024 and 27 May 2024 12%
Between 28 May 2024 and 8 July 2024 24%
Between 9 July 2024 and 18 August 2024 19%
Not before 19 August 2024 45%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 38
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 172
Number of Forecasts 107
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 447
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.395735
2.
-0.324356
3.
-0.265385
4.
-0.184068
5.
-0.164072

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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