Will Mike Rogers win the Republican primary for the US Senate election for Michigan in 2024?

Started Mar 08, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 06, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The race for the Republican nomination to try and flip the Michigan Senate seat being vacated by the retiring Debbie Stabenow includes former US Representatives Justin Amash, Peter Meijer, and Mike Rogers (NBC News). The Republican primary is scheduled for 6 August 2024 (Ballotpedia).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes, and he will win more than 50.0% of the vote" with a closing date of 6 August 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and he will win more than 50.0% of the vote 67%
Yes, but he will win 50.0% or less of the vote 23%
No, Justin Amash will win 1%
No, Peter Meijer will win 7%
No, someone else will win 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 32
Average for questions older than 6 months: 196
Number of Forecasts 81
Average for questions older than 6 months: 560
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.326634
2.
-0.263952
3.
-0.22955
4.
-0.228172
5.
-0.210215

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username