When will the percentage of Americans who have an unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump fall below 50.0%, according to FiveThirtyEight?

Started Mar 08, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 27, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The outcome determined using chart data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "Do Americans have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump?" page (FiveThirtyEight, with "POLL TYPE" set to "Favorability," "POLITICIAN/INSTITUTION" set to "Donald Trump," and "SUBPOPULATION" set to "All"). As of the launch of this question, Trump's unfavorable rating on 26 February 2024 was 51.9%. The question will close as of the earliest date for which Trump has an unfavorability rating under 50.0%, but at least seven calendar days must first past from that date to allow for potential revisions.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 11 March 2024: There was a typo in the question description that has now been fixed.


The question closed "Not before 27 July 2024" with a closing date of 27 July 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 12 April 2024 0%
Between 12 April 2024 and 16 May 2024 0%
Between 17 May 2024 and 20 June 2024 2%
Between 21 June 2024 and 26 July 2024 4%
Not before 27 July 2024 94%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 137
Average for questions older than 6 months: 192
Number of Forecasts 365
Average for questions older than 6 months: 552
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000638
2.
-0.000638
3.
-0.000638
5.
-0.000638

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username