Who will the Senate Republican conference next elect as its new leader?
Started
Mar 08, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
On 28 February 2024, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell announced that he will step down as the Republican leader in November 2024, which quickly triggered speculation on who would replace him (AP, Politico, Senate.gov - Party Leadership). The date the newly elected leader will fill the position is immaterial.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Barrasso (WY) | 0% | 0% | 0% | -0.36% |
| Shelley Moore Capito (WV) | 1.00% | 0% | 0% | +0.36% |
| John Cornyn (TX) | 26.00% | +2.00% | +3.00% | +2.91% |
| Tom Cotton (AR) | 2.00% | -1.00% | -1.00% | -0.91% |
| Steve Daines (MT) | 9.00% | 0% | 0% | -0.73% |
| Joni Ernst (IA) | 2.00% | 0% | -1.00% | -0.82% |
| Ron Johnson (WI) | 12.00% | -1.00% | -1.00% | -1.00% |
| Rick Scott (FL) | 9.00% | -1.00% | -1.00% | -1.82% |
| John Thune (SD) | 19.00% | +2.00% | +2.00% | +2.09% |
| Someone else | 15.00% | -1.00% | -1.00% | -0.45% |
| No new leader will be elected before 1 January 2025 | 5.00% | 0% | 0% | +0.73% |