Who will the Senate Republican conference next elect as its new leader?

Started Mar 08, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 13, 2024 05:00PM UTC

On 28 February 2024, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell announced that he will step down as the Republican leader in November 2024, which quickly triggered speculation on who would replace him (AP, Politico, Senate.gov - Party Leadership). The date the newly elected leader will fill the position is immaterial.

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The question closed "John Thune (SD)" with a closing date of 13 November 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
John Barrasso (WY) 0%
Shelley Moore Capito (WV) 0%
John Cornyn (TX) 23%
Tom Cotton (AR) 3%
Steve Daines (MT) 0%
Joni Ernst (IA) 0%
Ron Johnson (WI) 0%
Rick Scott (FL) 32%
John Thune (SD) 34%
Someone else 2%
No new leader will be elected before 1 January 2025 6%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 32
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188
Number of Forecasts 136
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.752754
3.
-0.672754
4.
-0.332334

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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