Who will win the Democratic primary for the US Senate election for Maryland in 2024?

Started Mar 15, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 14, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The Democratic primary race to replace retiring US Sen. Ben Cardin includes Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks and Rep. David Trone, with the winner likely to face Republican former Governor Larry Hogan in the general election (The Hill, Maryland.gov - Primary Candidates). The Democratic primary is scheduled for 14 May 2024 (Ballotpedia).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Angela Alsobrooks" with a closing date of 14 May 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Angela Alsobrooks 21%
David Trone 78%
Someone else 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 40
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 174
Number of Forecasts 97
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 451
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.116145
2.
-1.104257
3.
-0.933537
4.
-0.859992
5.
-0.841145

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username