On 19 March 2024, a Brazilian federal police indictment against Bolsonaro was released by the country's Supreme Court, which included accusations of fraud related to whether he was vaccinated for COVID-19, though the decision whether to criminally charge him falls to the prosecutor-general's office (AP, Guardian, Yahoo). The ordering of Bolsonaro to house arrest with Bolsonaro's presence at the pertinent home confirmed will count. Brazilian airspace and territorial waters are considered to be "inside" Brazil. The jurisdiction served by public authorities who arrest Bolsonaro is immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 29 June 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.