Oiram18 asks:

What will be the average Air Quality Index value in New Delhi, India, in April 2024?

Started Mar 29, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 30, 2024 07:01AM UTC

A report from Swiss air quality technology company IQAir indicated that 83 of the 100 cities with the worst air pollution in the world were in India in 2023 (CNN). The question will be suspended on 29 April 2024 and the outcome determined using data from AirNow once complete data for the month of April 2024 are available (AirNow.gov). To access the resolution data on the site, choose "New Delhi" under "Select a City," click on the "Historical" tab, and download the file for "2024 PM2.5 YTD." Add all positive valid data points for the column titled "AQI" (invalid entries are coded as -999, and valid data points are labeled "Valid" under "QC Name") with a "4" under "Month" and divide the sum by the number of valid data points. Averages in April 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 were, respectively, 150.598, 107.440, 153.308, 170.479, and 138.654. If the named source changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.

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The question closed "At least 135.00, but less than 145.00" with a closing date of 1 May 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 135.00 13%
At least 135.00, but less than 145.00 86%
At least 145.00, but less than 155.00 1%
At least 155.00, but less than 165.00 0%
At least 165.00, but less than 175.00 0%
At least 175.00, but less than 185.00 0%
185.00 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 21
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 145
Number of Forecasts 114
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 326
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.10062
2.
-0.099018
3.
-0.06833
4.
-0.061238

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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