What percentage of votes cast for US president will be for someone other than either the Democratic or Republican nominee?

Started Apr 05, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC

The question will be suspended on 4 November 2024 and the outcome determined using election results as reported by the Associated Press. If the outcome appears dependent on the disposition of legal disputes as to the validity of certain votes in a jurisdiction or jurisdictions, we will wait for the judicial outcomes of those disputes before resolving the question. An xlsx file with historical data from the US Federal Election Commission for previous US elections may be downloaded here, which may or may not be identical to data as reported by the Associated Press (FEC US Presidential Election Results 1984-2020).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Less than 1.50% 2.00% 0% 0% -5.00%
At least 1.50%, but less than 3.00% 15.00% 0% -1.00% -15.00%
At least 3.00%, but less than 4.50% 20.00% 0% -1.00% -5.00%
At least 4.50%, but less than 6.00% 17.00% 0% +1.00% +2.00%
At least 6.00%, but less than 8.00% 21.00% 0% +1.00% +9.00%
At least 8.00%, but less than 10.00% 13.00% 0% 0% +5.00%
10.00% or more 12.00% 0% 0% +9.00%

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