Supak asks:
How many total hurricanes will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2024 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?
Closing Dec 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Researchers at Colorado State University have predicted an "extremely active" Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from 1 June 2024 to 30 November 2024 (NBC News, Colorado State University - 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2024 and the outcome determined using categorizations provided by the National Hurricane Center no later than 16 December 2024 (National Hurricane Center, National Hurricane Center - Reports).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 or fewer | 1.00% | -1.00% | -0.50% |
| Between 4 and 6 | 7.00% | -1.00% | -1.57% |
| Between 7 and 9 | 20.00% | -1.00% | +0.50% |
| Between 10 and 12 | 40.00% | 0% | +0.36% |
| Between 13 and 15 | 23.00% | +2.00% | +1.64% |
| 16 or more | 9.00% | +1.00% | -0.43% |