In the wake of the March 2024 theater attack in Russia, the FBI is concerned about a similar attack happening in the US (The Hill). For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5), though actual charges being brought is immaterial (Cornell - 18 U.S.C. § 2331). An attack will be considered "coordinated" if two or more people are directly involved in the execution of the attack (e.g., the 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, the 2015 San Bernardino office attack). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to count, and attribution or claims of responsibility are immaterial. "The US" means any US state or the District of Columbia, as well as the territorial waters of the US adjacent to a US state. The hijacking or bombing of an aircraft will count if the aircraft last took flight from the US or fatalities occur within the territory or airspace of the US.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 6 November 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.